LV Support&Resistancegives rough predictions on support and resistance levels by using rma and fibo numbers.
white color is the original rma250 value.
(Note: it is more easy to see them on logarithmic scale)
Cerca negli script per "support resistance"
ACD - Layers 1 & 2An implementation of layers 1 & 2 of ACD strategy of Mark Fisher, based on the book "The Logical Trader".
This implementation contains:
- OR lines
- A lines
- C lines
- Daily pivot range
- N days pivot range
- Customizable trading session
Strategy summary (This implementation):
There is 3 main concepts, each of which represented as two price levels.
1) OR (Opening Range) is the range of the first bar of the day. In other words, it's just "high - low" of the first resolution (usually 15min.) bar of the day. So, OR lines (Aqua color) visualize this range for each trading session.
As stated by Mark Fisher in his book, this range is meant to be a statistically significant range such that when price breaks the range in one direction, This is UNUSUAL to infiltrate it again AND break through the other side. So we can consider it as a potential enter signal (long or short).
2) A lines (Blue color) are drawn above and below OR lines with difference of 10% 0f 10 days ATR. The ATR period and the A multiplier (usually 10%) is customizable.
3) C lines (Gray color) are drawn above and below OR lines at 15% of 10 Days ATR difference. These lines help detecting AND confirming that UNUSUAL situation.
These concepts form the layer 1, which you can spot potential opportunities with it.
There is also two ranges to show support and resistance levels based on price action of previous days. Pivot ranges are rolling ranges that calculated and last for each day separately. They only differ in calculation period - the first one is daily (yellow color area) and the other one (red color area) is customizable, but is usually 3 or 5 days.
Each range consists of two price levels, valid for the current trading session. One of theme is HL2 , and the other one is "HLC3 + abs(HLC3 - HL2 )".
These two ranges, "Daily pivot range" and "N days pivot range", form the layer 2, which you can see them as two dynamic support/resistance ranges - one for daily, and the other for N days. They help filtering opportunities spotted from layer 1.
There is 2 more layers in the ACD strategy, which is omitted in this free implementation.
Donchian Zig-Zag [LuxAlgo]The following indicator returns a line bouncing of the extremities of a Donchian channel, with the aim of replicating a "zig-zag" indicator. The indicator can both be lagging or lagging depending on the settings user uses.
Various extended lines are displayed in order to see if the peaks and troughs made by the Donchian zig-zag can act as potential support/resistance lines.
User Settings
Length : Period of the Donchian channel indicator, higher values will return fewer changes of directions from the zig-zag line
Bounce Speed : Determine the speed of bounces made by the zig-zag line, with higher values making the zig-zag line converge faster toward the extremities of the Donchian channel.
Gradient : Determine whether to use a gradient to color the area between each Donchian channel extremities, "On" by default.
Transparency : Transparency of the area between each Donchian channel extremities.
Usage
It is clear that this is not a very common indicator to see, as such usages can be limited and very hypothetical. Nonetheless, when a bounce speed value of 1 is used, the zig-zag line will have the tendency to lag behind the price, and as such can provides crosses with the prices which can provide potential entries.
The advantage of this approach against most indicators relying on crosses with the price is that the linear nature of the indicator allows avoiding retracements, thus potentially holding a position for the entirety of the trend.
Altho this indicator would not necessarily be the most adapted to this kind of usage.
When using a bounce speed superior to 1, we can see the predictive aspects of the indicator:
We can link the peaks/troughs made by the zig-zag with the precedent ones made to get potential support and resistance lines, while such a method is not necessarily accurate it still allows for an additional to interpret the indicator.
Conclusions
We presented an indicator aiming to replicate the behaviour of a zig-zag indicator. While somehow experimental, it has the benefits of being innovative and might inspire users in one way or another.
On Balance Volume FieldsThe On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator was developed by Joseph E. Granville and published first in his book "New key to stock market profits" in 1963. It uses volume to determine momentum of an asset. The base concept of OBV is - in simple terms - you take a running total of the volume and either add or subtract the current timeframe volume if the market goes up or down. The simplest use cases only use the line build that way to confirm direction of price, but the possibilities and applications of OBV go far beyond that and are (at least to my knowledge) not found in existing indicators available on this platform.
If you are interested to get a deeper understanding of OBV, I recommend the lecture of the above mentioned book by Granville. All the features described below are taken directly from the book or are inspired by it (deviations will be marked accordingly). If you have no prior experience with OBV, I recommend to start simple and read an easy introduction (e.g. On-Balance Volume (OBV) Definition from Investopedia) and start applying the basic concepts first before heading into the more advanced analysis of OBV fields and trends.
Markets and Timeframes
As the OBV is "just" a momentum indicator, it should be applicable to any market and timeframe.
As a long term investor, my experience is limited to the longer timeframes (primarily daily), which is also how Granville applies it. But that is most likely due to the time it was developed and the lack of lower timeframe data at that point in time. I don't see why it wouldn't be applicable to any timeframe, but cannot speak from experience here so do your own research and let me know. Likewise, I invest in the crypto markets almost exclusively and hence this is where my experience with this indicator comes from.
Feature List
As a general note before starting into the description of the individual features: I use the colors and values of the default settings of the indicator to describe it. The general look and feel obviously can be customized (and I highly recommend doing so, as this is a very visual representation of volume, and it should suit your way of looking at a chart) and I also tried to make the individual features as customizable as possible.
Also, all additions to the OBV itself can be turned off so that you're left with just the OBV line (although if that's what you want, I recommend a version of the indicator with less overhead).
Fields
Fields are defined as successive UPs or DOWNs on the OBV. An UP is any OBV reading above the last high pivot and subsequently a DOWN is any reading below the last low pivot. An UP-field is the time from the first UP after a DOWN-field to the first DOWN (not including). The same goes for a DOWN field but vice versa.
The field serves the same purpose as the OBV itself. To indicate momentum direction. I haven't found much use for the fields themselves other than serving as a more smoothed view on the current momentum. The real power of the fields emerges when starting to determine larger trends of off them (as you will see soon).
Therefor the fields are displayed on the indicator as background colors (UP = green, DOWN = red), but only very faint to not distract too much from the other parts of the indicator.
Major Volume Trend
The major volume trend - from which Granville says, it's the one that tends to precede price - is determined as the succession of the highest highs and lowest lows of UP and DOWN fields. It is represented by the colors of the numbers printed on the highs and lows of the fields.
The trend to be "Rising" is defined as the highest high of an UP field being higher than the highest high of the last UP field and the lowest low of the last DOWN field being higher than the lowest low of the prior DOWN field. And vice versa for a "Falling" trend. If the trend does not have a rising or falling pattern, it is said to be "Doubtful". The colors are indicated as follows:
Rising = green
Falling = red
Doubtful = blue
ZigZag Swing count
The swing count is determined by counting the number of swings within a trend (as described above) and is represented by the numbers above the highs and lows of the fields. It determines the length and thus strength of a trend.
In general there are two ways to determine the count. The first one is by counting the swings between pivots and the second one by counting the swings between highs and lows of fields. This indicator represents the SECOND one as it represents the longer term trend (which I'm more interested in as it denotes a longer term perspective).
However, the ZigZag count has three applications on the OBV. The "simple ZigZag" is a count of three swings which mainly tells you that the shorter term momentum of the market has changed and the current trend is weakening. This doesn't mean it will reverse. A count of three downs is still healthy if it occurs on a strong uptrend (and vice versa) and it should primarily serve as a sign of caution. If the count increases beyond three, the last trend is weakening considerably, and you should probably take action.
The second count to look out for is five swings - the "compound ZigZag". If this goes hand in hand with breaking a major support/resistance on the OBV it can offer a buying/selling opportunity in the direction of the trend. Otherwise, there's a good chance that this is a reversal signal.
The third count is nine. To quote Granville directly: "there is a very strong tendency FOR MAJOR REVERSAL OF REND AFTER THE NINTH SWING" (emphasis by the author). This is something I look out for and get cautious about, although I have found signal to be weak in an overextended market. I have observed counts of 10 and even 12 which did not result in a major reversal and the market trended further after a short period of time. This is still a major sign of caution and should not be taken lightly.
Moving average
Although Granville talks only briefly about averages and the only mention of a specific one is the 10MA, I found moving averages to be a very valuable addition to my analysis of the OBV movements.
The indicator uses three Exponential Moving Averages. A long term one to determine the general direction and two short term ones to determine the momentum of the trend. Especially for the latter two, keep in mind that those are very indirect as they are indicators of an indicator anyway and I they should not necessarily be used as support or resistance (although that might sometimes be helpful). I recommend paying most attention to the longterm average as I've found it to be very accurate when determining the longterm trend of a market (even better than the same indicator on the price).
If the OBV is above the long term average, the space between OBV and average is filled green and filled red if below. The colors and defaults for the averages are:
long term, 144EMA, green
short term 1, 21EMA, blue
short term 2, 55EMA, red
Divergences
This is a very rudimentary adaption of the standard TradingView "Divergence Indicator". I find it helpful to have these on the radar, but do not actively use them (as in having a strategy based on OBV/price divergence). This is something that I would eventually pick up in a later version of the indicator if there is any demand for it, or I find the time to look into strategies based on this.
Comparison line
A small but very helpful addition to the indicator is a horizontal line that traces the current OBV value in real time, which makes it very easy to compare the current value of the OBV to historic values (which is a study I can highly recommend).
Trend Trader Buy/Sell SignalsTrend Trader
The code is open source, what it uses to print signals is MACD cross and ADX. Bar colors change in relation to where price is according to the 50 day MA. The MA ribbon is used for visualizing trend and using it for dynamic support/resistance. The ribbon is comprised of the 50 day and 100 day MAs.
Main reason to publish this script is because some like to jumble up scripts together slap some moving averages on it to "follow trend" and then label it an algorithm, market it and sell it to people online. No single system will work 100% of the time, do you due diligence in anything you are interested in buying. Plenty of free scripts in the TV library that can do you justice when trading.
RSI Moving Average with Signal LineDefault values:
RSI = white
RSI Prime ( RSI of RSI ) = yellow
EMA 34 = blue
EMA 55 = red
They are listed in order of reactiveness to price changes. Think of them like the Williams Alligator...
White and yellow work the fastest, with WHITE being signal and YELLOW being trigger. Great for LTF
Blue and red work the slowest, with BLUE being frequently testing RED as support/resistance. Great for HTF
Long Entry:
RSIs both > SMAS (signal)
RSI > RSI Prime (confirmation)
Long Exit:
RSI < RSI Prime (signal)
RSIs both < SMAs (confirmation)
Short Entry:
RSIs both < SMAS (signal)
RSI < RSI Prime (confirmation)
Short Exit:
RSI > RSI Prime (signal)
RSIs both > SMAS (confirmation)
72s: Adaptive Hull Moving Average+One challenging issue for beginner traders is to differentiate market conditions, whether or not the current market is giving best possibility to stack profits, as earliest, in shortest time possible, or not.
On intraday, we've seen some big actions by big banks are somewhat can be defined --or circling around-- by HMA 200 . I've been thinking on to make the visuals more conform to price dynamics (separating major movement and minor noise) to get clearer signs of when it starts to happen. So it will be easier to see in a glance when the strength starts really taken place, with less cluttered chart.
This Adaptive HMA is using the new Pine Script's feature which now support Dynamic Length arguments for several Pine functions. ( read: www.tradingview.com). It hasn't support the built-in HMA() directly, but thankfully we can use its wma() formula to construct. (Note: I tweaked a bit HMA formula already popular here by using plain int() instead of round() on its wma's length, since I find it precisely match tradingview's built-in HMA).
You can choose which aspect the Adaptive HMA period will adapt to.
In this study I present it with two options: Volume and Volatility . It will "moves" faster or slower depends on which situation the aspect is currently into. ie: When volume is generally low or volatile readings is not there, price won't move very much, so the adapting MA will slow down by dynamically lengthen the lookback period, and vice versa, and so on.
Colour-markings in the Adaptive resembles which situation explained above. In addition, I also combine it with slope calculation of the MA to help measuring trend-strength or sideway/choppy conditions.
This way when we use it as dynamic support/resistance it will be more visually-reliable.
Secondly, and more important, it might help us traders with better probability info of whether or not a trade should even worth to be made . ie: If in the mean time market won't give much movement, any profit would also only as much. In most cases, we might better save our dime for later or place it somewhere else.
HOW TO USE:
Aside from better dynamic support/resistance and clearer breakout confirmation, MA is coloured as follow:
YELLOW:
Market is in consolidation or flat. Be it sideways, choppy, or in relatively small movements. If it shows up in a trending market, it may be an earlier sign that current trend might about to change its direction, or confirming a price broke-out to another side.
LIGHT GREEN or LIGHT RED:
Tells if a trend is forming but still relatively weak (or getting weaker), as it doesn't have volume or volatility to support.
DARKER GREEN ot DARKER RED:
This is where we can expect some good and strong price movement to ride. If it's strong enough, many times it marks a start of new long-lasting major trend.
SETTINGS:
Charger:
Choose which aspect your HMA should plug itself into, thus it will adapt to it.
Minimum Period, Maximum Period:
172 - 233 is just my own setting to outmatch the static HMA 200 for intraday. I find it --in my style of trading-- best in 15m tf in almost any pair, and 15m to 1H for some stocks. It also works nicely with conventional EMA 200, sometimes as if they somewhat work hand-in-hand in defining where the price should go. But you can, ofcourse, experiment with other ranges, broader or narrower. Especially if you already have an established strategy to follow to. As you might do with:
Consolidation area threshold:
This has to do with slope calculation. The bigger the number means your MA needs bigger degree to define the market is out of flat (yellow) area. This can be useful if needed to lighten up the filter or vice-versa.
Background colouring:
Just another colouring to help highlighting the difference in market conditions.
ALERTS:
There are two alerts:
Volume Break: when volume is breaking up above average, and
Volatility Meter: when the market more likely is about to have its moment of the big wiggling brush.
USAGE:
Very very nice BUY entry to catch big up-movement if:
1. Price is above MA. (It is best when price is also not to far distance from the MA, or you can also use distance oscillator to help out too)
2. HMA's color is in darker green. Means it's on the charging plug with your chosen aspect.
3. RSI is above 50. This is to help as additional confirmation.
Clear SELL entry signal is same as above, just the opposite.
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Note:
Lower timeframe of course means more noise to be filtered. Depends on the instrument, you might need to tweak the settings a bit till it conform nicely and shows lots of good trades in history. Here's another example on GBPUSD 5m timeframe:
For exit/take-profit point, you can use a second faster period static HMA. Or you can also use RSI. Here's an example:
Don't get me wrong, on few occasions I found it's still best using static MA to spot fakeouts, breakouts, etc, especially ones that's been already use widely. If that's the case or price actions seems suspicious, simply put the same value for minimum and maximum period settings, and there you have the original HMA with extra features.
For developer, check in the code if you need to customise your own charger.
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That's it. Hopefully this Adaptive HMA+ could at least be a good sidekick to your own strategy, as it does mine. ;)
Support and Resistance levels - DMI - DI trailing stop linesThis can be used to compliment the Directional Movement Index if used as a standalone trading system. In addition to using the ADX and DI lines, a trailing stop can be used when the DI lines cross. If the plus line is above to show a buy signal, then the low of the price of when which the cross took place is used as a trailing stop. If the minus line is above to show a sell signal, then the high of the price of when which the cross took place is used as a trailing stop. This helps cut losses sooner whenever the price would end up going through these trailing stops or support/resistance levels yet the DMI system would show an upward or downward move.
All LinesThe objective of this script is to try to display as many overlay indicators as possible simultaneously while keeping the clutter to a minimum.
--Included are Indicators are--
sma 20 50 100 200
ema 20 50 100 200
High/Low
Bollinger bands upper/lower
Pivot points PP R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
-- For Time periods --
Hour,Day,Week
--- How To Use --
Switch it on when looking for likely support or resistance areas to plot your trade.
The more lines that overlay each other indicate even greater support/resistance at that point
meaning if the price is going down it may bounce up at this area or if the price is going up it may bounce down.
Also the more visible the line the more strength it has to effect the price. This value can be edited in settings by adjusting the power value for each indicator as it can often depend on what you are trading.
--Tips--
If you want to know what the line represents hover your cursor over the dot at the end of the line and a tool tip will appear.
If there are to many circles zoom in the price more to separate them and try to hover again.
Finnie's RSI Waves + Volume Colored CandlesUsing RSI and 4 exponential moving averages, I created this indicator so that you can spot inconsistencies between price action and RSI. There's a lot of misunderstanding surrounding RSI, most people think if something's 'oversold' buying is a guarantee win. This definitely isn't the case as there's many more variable to consider. In addition, with this indicator, candles are colored based off of volume.
INDICATOR USE:
1. Determine trend
2. Find relative support/resistance
3. Once at support/resistance look for entries:
-RSI crossing over the Short EMA (CYAN) is your fist buy/sell signal
-Short EMA (CYAN) crossing Medium EMA (YELLOW) is your second
-RSI crossing Long EMA (PINK) is your final and most accurate signal
4. Once you've made an entry, you can follow step 3. in reverse for an exit
COLORED CANDLES:
Dark Green candles = Strong Bullish volume
Light Green = Average Bullish volume
Dark Red candles = Strong Bearish volume
Light Red = Average Bearish Volume
Orange/blue means volume is conflicting with price action
I plan to add a Colored DOT over each crossover as a visual buy/sell signal if anyone has any suggestions that'd be great :)
Rain On Me PRO 2/3This is the part 2 of Rain On Me PRO. It follow my two other indicators "Rain On Me" and "Rain On Me V2". This version is called "PRO" because it is less "user-friendly" than the two previous versions. But it is more faster, and cleaner than ever!
This indicator is separated into 3 parts. You can find all parts into my profile in the « Scripts » section. Once the 3 parts together, the indicator is complete.
Here are the features for this part:
-Support/Resistance and Range lines (Red is Resistance, Yellow is Range, Green is Support).
-MTF Trend Line following the trend with red color for bearish trend and green color for bullish trend (Based on volume so it work only where the volume information flux is available).
-MTF Fractals with alerts. (Zigzag based on high and low).
Everything is fully customizable in settings.
To place an alert, always choose the "Once per bar" option.
Many functions are still to come. So don't hesitate to report bugs, suggestions and follow me to always be kept informed of the next updates to come!
//ALWAYS DELETE INDICATOR AND ALERTS AND RESET THEM AFTER AN UPDATE!
Thank again for your support!
Good trade everyone! And remember, money management is the most important!
Static + Dynamic LevelsShows static and dynamic levels which can act as support/resistance. These are important as there is a lot of users who are interested in buying/selling at these prices.
Static Levels include -
Daily/Weekly/Monthly/Yearly Open (changes color depending on if below or above price)
Previous Daily/Weekly/Monthly/Yearly Open
Previous day's High/Low
Dynamic Levels include -
100/200 Daily MA
100/200 Weekly MA
Hide Extended Hours/non-intraday American BarsOnly works with American bar style.
Not works with Candles.
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This script can hide the extended hours/non-intraday bars and leave the intraday bars only, especially for future users, such as ES/NQ/RTY/YM, etc.,.
Now you can find the intraday support/resistance quite easily!
Example, as a ES investor, you can easily find the intraday support/resistance level ,which is almost equal to SPY / SPX , no longer need to check SPY / SPX separately again, saving your time a lot.
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IMPORTANT INSTRUCTION
In order to make the script work, you have to bring it to the most top visual layer.
Please do as the following steps:
Add the script to chart
Hover mouse on the script name, and tap the right-most 'more' button (which appears as 3 dots)
Select "Visual Order", then select "Bring to front".
Done!
Also, in order to have a better view effect and make the bars COMPLETELY "Hidden", you can adjust the hidden bar color in the "setting" menu to the exact color of your chart background.
MyRSITrend colored support/resistance based on MA. Can toggle between EMA / SMA .
Trend = Close > MA or Close < MA
Default support in uptrend = 40 RSI
Default resistance in downtrend = 60 RSI
RSI Overbought/Oversold colors also linked to trend.
NSDT Auto Support / Resistance LevelsSimple script that automatically plots support and resistance lines based on the pivot points of the number of candles you choose to look back upon.
All options are editable.
Better Bollinger BandsIt is a highly configurable Bollinger Bands implementation.
You can choose different moving averages: EMA, SMA, WMA, VWMA, RMA (Wilder's EMA), ZLEMA, HMA (Hull MA), ALMA
Select between standard or mean deviation
You can use "High" or "Low" for upper and lower bands, which makes them much better for dynamic support-resistance
You can shift (offset) right the bands to use it as support and resistance in the future
MTF ohlc S/RA very simple idea, a close (or high, low, ohlc4 or open) from a higher Time Frame
will give future Support/Resistance area's
In this example of BTC/USD we see:
- Yearly close 2017 gave Resistance in June 2019
- Yearly close 2018 gave Support in March 2020
We are now pushing to the Resistance of Yearly close 2019...
Since there is a limit for the amount of lines (since it is just too much if everything is plotted)
there are different options:
- 4 different Time Frames, each can be enabled/disabled,
- TF can be chosen,
- source can be changed (close, open, high, low, ohlc4)
- Period can be changed, for example TF Month:
You can choose just to show a particular year, Month,...
You also can choose between which prices you want to see lines,
for example Monthly close, since the beginning till now, but only between $6000 - $8000:
This helps to know the closest S/R around the present price
Other example:
- Lines can be extended to the right, or not
- Labels can be enabled/disabled:
- Linewidth and brightness of the line can be changed, also the style (solid, dashed or dotted line)
Default only 2 very high TF's are enabled (3 Month = one quarter, and 1 Year)
The 3 Month has a dotted line, which helps distinguish the line against the yearly line
- Prices above 1000 are rounded since it seems distracting to see for example 6478,878654,
seems better just to see 6479, prices below 1000 are just seen as intended
Have fun!
Hide extended hours/non-intraday barsEspecially for future users, such as ES/NQ/RTY/YM, etc., this script can hide the extended hours/non-intraday bars and leave the intraday bars only.
With this script , you can find the intraday support/resistance quite easily!
Example, if you are a ES investor, you can easily find the intraday support/resistance level ,which is almost equal to SPY, with this script, and no need to check SPY separately again , saving your time a lot.
Note: Please couple this script with American Bars. If you use candle charts, the upper/lower pins of the candle can't be hidden with the bars together, which is restricted by the code editor itself...
The Fantastic Four of Oliver VelezThis script graphics the "fantastic 4" area, was created by oliver velez and is used in the opening of the american stock market, determined by:
1- ma200 at the closure of the previous day
2- ma20 at the closure of the previous day
3- price of previous day closure
4- activity of the last 30/60 min prior to the closure of the previous day (search the maximum and minimum)
Basically it is a very important support / resistance area the first hour from the opening, the trap area is an area in which it should be avoided to operate if the price opens within the same. In advance of being used as a support / resistance area if the price opens above the 4f is looking for longer opportunities (many more aspects should be evaluated) and if it is below.
Configuration:
- possibility to modify the amount of minutes of the activity of the previous day.
- possibility of hidding the "trap area" label.
- possibility of hidding the "change to temporary frame of 2 min" label.
Note: the temporary framework used is the 2 min, in the event of being in another temporary framework the indicator will not work and will be alerted with a label
Surfing Wave [ChuckBanger]An interesting little script... It utilize Moving Averages with a set multiplier and an offset to locate strong trends and possible future support - resistance. I also include a Donchian wave channel.
The interesting thing with Donchian part is it lines up pretty well with fibonacci retracement
Vdub_HMA_BandsThe blue boxes drawn in to indicate heiken ashi support / resistance candles
candle to break the support / resistance as well as the channel could indicate a trend continuation /& or reversal
Simple but effective !
Time Series ForecastIntroduction
Forecasting is a blurry science that deal with lot of uncertainty. Most of the time forecasting is made with the assumption that past values can be used to forecast a time series, the accuracy of the forecast depend on the type of time series, the pre-processing applied to it, the forecast model and the parameters of the model.
In tradingview we don't have much forecasting models appart from the linear regression which is definitely not adapted to forecast financial markets, instead we mainly use it as support/resistance indicator. So i wanted to try making a forecasting tool based on the lsma that might provide something at least interesting, i hope you find an use to it.
The Method
Remember that the regression model and the lsma are closely related, both share the same equation ax + b but the lsma will use running parameters while a and b are constants in a linear regression, the last point of the lsma of period p is the last point of the linear regression that fit a line to the price at time p to 1, try to add a linear regression with count = 100 and an lsma of length = 100 and you will see, this is why the lsma is also called "end point moving average".
The forecast of the linear regression is the linear extrapolation of the fitted line, however the proposed indicator forecast is the linear extrapolation between the value of the lsma at time length and the last value of the lsma when short term extrapolation is false, when short term extrapolation is checked the forecast is the linear extrapolation between the lsma value prior to the last point and the last lsma value.
long term extrapolation, length = 1000
short term extrapolation, length = 1000
How To Use
Intervals are create from the running mean absolute error between the price and the lsma. Those intervals can be interpreted as possible support and resistance levels when using long term extrapolation, make sure that the intervals have been priorly tested, this mean the intervals are more significants.
The short term extrapolation is made with the assumption that the price will follow the last two lsma points direction, the forecast tend to become inaccurate during a trend change or when noise affect heavily the lsma.
You can test both method accuracy with the replay mode.
Comparison With The Linear Regression
Both methods share similitudes, but they have different results, lets compare them.
In blue the indicator and in red a linear regression of both period 200, the linear regression is always extremely conservative since she fit a line using the least squares method, at the contrary the indicator is less conservative which can be an advantage as well as a problem.
Conclusion
Linear models are good when what we want to forecast is approximately linear, thats not the case with market price and this is why other methods are used. But the use of the lsma to provide a forecast is still an interesting method that might require further studies.
Thanks for reading !
Adaptive Autonomous Recursive Trailing StopIntroduction
Trailing stop are important indicators in technical analysis, today i propose a new trailing stop A2RTS based on my last published indicator A2RMA (1), this last indicator directly used an error measurement thus providing a way to create enveloppes, which provide a direct way to create trailing stops based on highest/lowest rules.
The Indicator
If you need a more detailed explanation of this indicator i encourage you to check the A2RMA indicator post i made, parameters does not differ from the supertrend, thus having a length parameter and a factor parameter who is here described as gamma , gamma control how far away are the bands from each others thus spotting longer terms trends when gamma is higher.
On BTCUSD
Something worth mentioning is that the indicator sometimes behave like my MTA trailing stop indicator (2) who is closer to the price when a trend persist thus providing early exit points, however A2RTS behave a bit better.
Price can sometimes break the trailing stop, this can be interpreted as a support/resistance or just as an exit point, the support resistance methodology on trailing stop is not the most recommended.
Sometimes it is recommended to have an higher length rather than an high gamma like in this case for INTEL CORP, below gamma = 3 and length = 20
The microprocessor market like to use higher length's instead of higher gamma's , A2RMA is a non-linear filter, this would explain such behaviour.
Conclusion
Trailing stops might not suffer as much from whipsaw trades than MA crossovers but they still remain inefficient when market is not trending, results of the proposed indicator on major forex pairs are more than disappointing, but i hope this will serve as basis for other trailing stops that might act a little bit better. I conclude this post by thanking everyone who support my work and i encourage you to modify this indicator and share it with the community.
Thanks for reading !
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